Thursday, February 26, 2009

NTRA Thoroughbred Notebook

News and notes from around the Thoroughbred racing world, compiled by NTRA Communications.

BAFFERT AMONG 11 NAMED FINALISTS FOR HALL OF FAME
Three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert, along with two of his greatest equine charges, are among two trainers, three jockeys, and six horses to be selected as the 2009 finalists for election to the National Museum of Racing’s Hall of Fame.
The 11 finalists, determined by a vote of the Hall of Fame Nominating Committee, are:
Contemporary female horses: Open Mind, Silverbulletday, Sky Beauty.
Contemporary male horses: Best Pal, Point Given, Tiznow.
Jockeys: Eddie Maple, Randy Romero, Alex Solis.
Trainers: Bob Baffert, Robert Wheeler.

Among the Thoroughbred are two Baffert trainess: Silverbulletday and Point Given.
Silverbulletday was the champion 2-year-old filly of 1998 and the champion 3-year-old filly of 1999. She won 15 of 23 career starts and compiled purse earnings of $3,093,207. Her victories included the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Ashland, Kentucky Oaks, Alabama and Gazelle.

Point Given compiled a record of 9-3-0 and earnings of $3,968,500 from 13 starts in 2000 and 2001. He was Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old of 2001. At two, the son of Thunder Gulch was second in the Champagne and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before his victory in the Hollywood Futurity. He opened his 3-year-old season with victories in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. He finished fifth as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby then won the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes, the Haskell Invitational and the Travers.

To be eligible, trainers must be licensed and actively involved with Thoroughbreds for 25 years or have been retired for a minimum of five years; jockeys must be licensed for 20 years or have been retired for a minimum of five years; horses must be retired for five full calendar years.
In early March, the approximately 180 members of the Hall of Fame Voting Panel will receive a ballot and an information packet on each of the finalists. The voters will be asked to select one name in each category. The individual with the highest number of votes in each category will be inducted into the Hall of Fame on Friday, August 14, 2009 in Saratoga Springs.


DERBY TRAIL TO HEAT UP SATURDAY WITH WIDE-OPEN FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH
Beethoven and Capt. Candyman Can, both Grade II stakes winners, face formidable challenges when 12 3-year-old Kentucky Derby hopefuls go to the post for the Grade II, $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale, Fla.

The 63rd edition of the Fountain of Youth, shortened to a one-turn mile test this year from nine furlongs, has attracted more high-profile potential Derby prospects than any race on the national calendar at this point in the season with a fast pace almost certain to develop.

Beethoven turns back in distance after only managing a fourth-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream on January 31. But he established his class last fall winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in late November with Capt. Candyman Can third.

Capt. Candyman returns after an impressive score in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream on January 30. The son of Candy Ride won the Iroquois Stakes going a one-turn mile at Churchill in his start prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club.

There will almost certainly be a break-neck pace down the backstretch and into the turn in the Fountain of Youth with Notonthesamepage, This Ones for Phil and Taqarub each coming into the race after sharp sprint stakes victories in their last starts.

Notonthesamepage got the Gulfstream stakes program off to a fast start on January 3 when he romped home an 8 ¼ lengths winner of the six-furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes. This Ones for Phil was brilliant in his own right winning the Sunshine Millions Dash at six furlongs on Jan. 24 by 2 ¼ lengths. And Taqarub is the wild card as he makes his South Florida debut after winning all three of his career starts at Aqueduct.

Completing the field for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth are: Theregoesjojo, Quality Road, Rocketing Returns, Break Water Edison, Jack Spratt, Bee Cee Cee and Take the Points, who may instead run in Saturday’s Sham Stakes at Santa Anita.

THE PAMPLEMOUSSE CAN TAKE SOLIS CLOSER TO DERBY WINNER’S CIRCLE IN SHAM
Aiming for his first Kentucky Derby victory after three seconds in 15 career rides, 44-year-old Alex Solis attempts to move a notch closer on Saturday in Santa Anita’s Grade III, $200,000 Sham Stakes while riding morning line favorite The Pamplemousse, a 3-year-old co-owned and selected at sale by his son, Alex II.

The Kentucky-bred son of Kafwain, purchased last March by a partnership for $150,000, will face 11 other 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles, a distance that would seem well suited for the gray colt, whose name translates to “grapefruit” in French.

After losing his first two starts while sprinting, The Pamplemousse broke his maiden with an impressive victory at 1 1/16 miles while timed in a rapid 1:41 2/5 over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track synthetic surface. He subsequently sizzled in taking the Grade III San Rafael Stakes while covering one mile in 1:35 1/5 over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface on January 17.

“I’m speechless, I really am,” Solis said immediately following his two-length triumph in the San Rafael. “It feels like he’s walking, he does everything so effortlessly.” Referring to the Kentucky Derby, Solis added, “I better start going to church and hoping he stays sound.”

The Pamplemousse, who has earned $89,280 from his four starts and ranks among the leading contenders for the Santa Anita Derby, drew post position five for the Sham. In 2005, Giacomo ran third in the 2005 Sham en route to his dramatic Kentucky Derby upset.

Todd Pletcher, the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer who gained his first Triple Crown victory with Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, has Take the Points preparing to take on The Pamplemousse on Saturday.

Take the Points, who broke his maiden in the mud at Belmont Park last September before winning an allowance event at Gulfstream Park on January 31, will be racing over a synthetic surface for the first time with Garrett Gomez named to ride.

“He trains like he’ll handle it,” Pletcher said of the gray colt. “If he runs well, he can come back in the Santa Anita Derby.”

The complete field for the Sham Stakes, in post position order, is: Hi Flyin Indy (jockey: Alonso Quinonez); Smart Bid (Rafael Bejarano); Tiz True (Aaron Gryder); Lifeline (Tyler Baze); The Pamplemousse (Alex Solis); Balfour Park (no rider); Mr. Hot Stuff (Corey Nakatani); Bourbon Bay (Joel Rosario); Ventana (Jesus Rios); Mark S the Cooler (Joseph Talamo); Unbridled Roman (Mike Smith); and Take the Points (Garrett Gomez).

NTRA SAFETY AND INTEGRITY ALLIANCE CIRCULATES COMPLIANCE STANDARDS
The National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) has announced that a comprehensive set of racetrack safety and integrity standards has been circulated to members of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance. After a period of comment, the compliance standards will finalized in early March and serve as the basis for racetrack Alliance accreditation, which also will begin in March. The Alliance, formed last October with the goal of establishing national uniform standards in the areas of safety and integrity, includes 55 racetracks in North America and every major national horsemen’s organization.
Compliance standards will cover five broad areas: injury reporting and prevention; creating a safer racing environment; aftercare and transition of retired racehorses; medication and testing; and safety research.
The accreditation program initially will focus on human and equine safety at racetracks, but will be expanded to cover additional areas, including wagering security, and to extend to horsemen and other industry participants.
The accreditation process will include a written questionnaire and an on-site visit by an Alliance safety team that will perform inspections and conduct interviews with track executives, racetrack personnel, jockeys, owners, trainers, stewards, regulators and customers, among others. The Honorable Tommy G. Thompson, former four-term Governor of Wisconsin and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services, serves as independent counsel of the Alliance and will provide public reports on Alliance progress in instituting safety and integrity standards.
“The safety standards put in place are the most ambitious in the history of the industry and incorporate recommendations and best practices developed by a number of organizations, including the TOBA Graded Stakes Committee, the Racing Medication and Testing Consortium and The Jockey Club’s Thoroughbred Safety Committee, among others,” said Alex Waldrop, President and CEO of the NTRA. “As with similar organizations in other industries, a key function of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance will be to serve as a platform from which uniform standards can be implemented on a national basis.”
"Much has been accomplished in recent years with respect to safety and integrity in Thoroughbred racing, but a good deal more needs to be done,” said Mike Ziegler, Executive Director of the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance. “Our industry is committed like never before to demonstrating through action that the safety of our human and equine athletes, and the overall integrity of our sport, are of paramount importance.”
Information on the Alliance and a draft of the accreditation standards can be found at www.NTRAalliance.com.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Road to Kentucky week 3

This week we go out west to Turf Paradise for the featured Turf Paradise Derby. Only nine contest races today so make them count! Good luck everyone!!

Race 1: This was a Clm6250 for Arizona bred fillies and mares 4+ at 1 mile on the turf. I selected Deb Doright (ML7/2) from the rail, who was the beaten favorite in her last start on the turf against open company. She has never won on the turf but has two second place finishes from three starts. Late last year she finished second to race rival Presentee. She appears to have the best late kick in a race with a fair amount of early speed. She should be rolling late…Herownagenda, Presentee and My Royal Girl were also part of my contender group.

The Result: Presentee grabbed the early lead and scored at 6-1 over Herownagenda and My Royal girl. Heavy favorite Deb Doright ran a dismal fourth as the heavy ½ favorite. I hope nobody bet real money on that terrible favorite! Presentee was a great price considering she was the 5/2 ML favorite. Two scratches changed the pace scenario in this race but the heavy favorite was going to be well beaten either way.

Maximum Points: Presentee 276
Maximum Score: 276
My Score: 0

Race 2: This was a Clm6250N3L for fillies and mares 4+ at 6f. I selected Silken Creek (ML 8/5) who has good early speed and dueled for the lead the entire race in her last start against stronger competition. Seth Martinez should have Silken Creek near the lead and will need to work a better trip on the drop. Peach Bellini looks like the main competition coming off a smashing victory against lesser competition.

The Result: Another speed duel developed with Mary’s Message benefiting down the lane and scoring at 9/2 with two longshot runner-ups. Mary’s Message was getting a rider switch to Morales and dropping back into claiming company after winning two starts back against n2l Company. There was more speed in this race than I had pictured when I selected Silken Creek. Two straight odds-on horses have missed the board so far!

Maximum Points: Mary’s Message 198
Maximum Score: 474
My Score: 0

Race 3: This was a Clm3000 for 4+ at 6f. I selected Pivot Pad (ML 3-1) as he has been facing the best competition lately and is running back second off the claim for Keith Bennett. Pivot Pad has some decent back class and a solid workout since his last start. Bodes Galaxy, Miller Peak, C My Secret, and Dbl Ott also merit consideration.

The Result: Pivot Pad grabbed the early lead and scored at 7/5 odds. Bodes Galaxy closed for second and C My Secret ran third. Runner-up Bodes Galaxy gets the most contest points for his second place finish at 7-1 odds.

Maximum Points: Bodes Galaxy 122
Maximum Score: 596
My Score: 110

Race 4: This was a Clm6250 for 4+ at 1m on the turf. I selected Wailea Warrior (ML 5/2) who is taking a very big hidden class drop in this race. Even though this race is at the same claiming level as his last four races, this is a significantly weaker group he is facing today. He has been competitive at near double digit odds in his recent starts but figures to be a pretty short price today. He has a powerful late kick and should be flying late. The main rival appears to be Latino Summer who is returning from a brief layoff.

The Result: Latino Summer was ready to roll off the layoff and scored at 8/5 over Wailea Warrior and Appointment. The top two finishers were well clear of the rest. My selection ran well but was second best at 2-1 odds. It looked like he had to wait a bit on the turn, who knows.

Maximum Points: Latino Summer 114
Maximum Score: 710
My Score: 168

Race 5: This was the Arizona Oaks 50K for 3yo fillies at 1 mile. I thought it was a fairly easy selection to take the Southern California shipper Vikkilee (ML 2-1) as she has a nice stalking style and faces by far the easiest field of her career. She should get a good race flow as there are several early speed stretchout types in this race. She should roll by in the lane. The main threat appears to be Carlsbad, who has yet to be challenged in her three career starts and stretches out to a route of ground for the first time today. She gets the distance and class test this afternoon.

The Result: So much for that opinion. Carlsbad scored easily as the 3/5 favorite with Miss Bodine finishing second and Vikkilee running a distant third. Vikkilee’s performance could only be described as “dismal” by even the most optimistic race enthusiasts as she was hard ridden into the far turn and had no response. Carlsbad looks like a very nice filly as she passed her class and distance test with ease.

Maximum Points: Carlsbad 75
Maximum Score: 785
My Score: 189

Race 6: This was the Marathon15K for 4+ at 1m5/8 on the main track. This is very tough to judge who might handle the distance, I ended up selecting Presidential Cause (ML 7/2) as he was claimed two starts back by William Bainum and has some good back numbers. I’m expecting this one to be near a moderate early pace and hopefully will kick on when the “real running” begins. Anyone is eligible to win it with the exception of Molino Rojo who appears to be a true outsider in this field.

The Result: Presidential Cause saved ground and grabbed the lead first time through the stretch. He then held Geririg safe down the stretch to score at 9/5. Louder finished third. Geririg got the most contest points for his second place finish at 11-1.

Maximum Points: Geririg 126
Maximum Score: 911
My Score: 307

Race 7: This was the featured Turf Paradise Derby 100K for 3yo’s at 1m1/16th. Only two of these runners are Triple Crown nominated and they were both shippers from Southern California. I settled on one of those two, Pauper’s Prize (ML 7/2), a lightly raced maiden with two second place finishes in two career starts. His speed figures are competitive and he has a lot of upside potential. He tries conventional dirt and two turns for the first time today. He could provide a bit of value over the two probable favorites Mayor Marv and Hidden Bounty. Hidden Bounty was defeated by local horse Minnetonka Mist last fall at Turf Paradise.

The Result: Mayor Marv proved to be too good for the rest as he held Hidden Bounty safe, with longshot Just Jebicah running third. My choice Pauper’s prize took quite a bit of tote action but had an awkward break and couldn’t reach contention. Baffert comes and gets the money with Mayor Marv!

Maximum Points: Mayor Marv 170
Maximum Score: 1,081
My score: 307

Race 8: This was a Clm6250 for 4+ at 1m on the turf. I went to the rail horse Appealing Dream in this spot as an upset pick. This horse has been in sharp form on the dirt and trainer Frazier has some strong stats with turf runners and runners trying the turf for the first time. I’m expecting a pretty good price with other established turf runners in play here.

The Result: Peter’s Charity scores narrowly at 4-1 over Takeittothebank and longshot Point Dume finished third. Peter’s Charity gets his first turf win after running third in his previous two tries. Positive rider switch to Hernandez was the angle in play here. Rail runner Appealing Dream offered nothing in his first turf start at 5-1 odds.

Maximum Points: Rock Candy 174
Maximum Score: 1,255
My Score: 307

Race 9: The finale was a Mcl5000 for Arizona breds 4+ at 6f. I selected Chesterman (ML 4-1) making his second start off the long layoff for trainer Peter Pizzurro. Chesterman had some trouble at the start in his comeback race and returns with a decent workout. He gets the services of top rider Corbett and should be prominent throughout. Others to consider were Bit of Sunshine, Buck’s Trick, Brite Benton, Too Hot to Burn and Al Ghazi’s Tobin.

The Result: The day ends with Al Ghazi’s Tobin, a nice 9-1 price that was pretty logical as he was lightly raced and had flashed early speed in his prior start last year. He had a low percentage trainer and hadn’t raced since last April, which explains the 9-1 price. Brite Benton finished second and Buck’s Trick ran third. Favored Chesterman didn’t show any early speed and ran fourth at 7/5 odds.

Maximum Points: Al Ghazi’s Tobin 348
Maximum Score: 1,603
My Score: 307

Summary: The first and last races today offered the most points for today’s contest. If you found them both you will be in the mix. Using my 2/3 of total rule as a guideline, the winner should be in the 1,100 point range. It was a week where it was tough to gain a lot of ground and there weren’t any real Derby contenders running, but Canterbury was still giving away some good prizes. Congratulations to the winner and I’ll be back next week.

The Oracle

Monday, February 16, 2009

News and Notes


Apprentice jockey Jenna Joubert, a native of New Prague, MN won the first stakes race of her career aboard Richard's Kid in the $50,000 John B. Campbell Handicap on Saturday at Laurel Park. Joubert rallied from more than 20 lengths off the pace to win the 1 1/8 mile Campbell for trainer Richard Small.......

A source close to the situation has indicated that Hamazing Destiny, the 3-year-old Salt Lake colt that broke his maiden at Oaklawn at first asking, has been sold in a seven figure transaction. Hamazing Destiny recorded a 94 Beyer Speed Figure in his 10 1/2 length romp for trainer Mac Robertson and owner Barry Butzow of Eden Prairie, MN.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Road to Kentucky Week 2

Tampa Bay should be an opportunity for some big points today with 12 races in play, plus the bonus race from Golden Gate. Some of us, namely me, need to make up some ground after last week! I focused on middle to outside post positions based on how I perceive the Tampa surface to be playing this year, although I don’t follow it on a daily basis.

Race 1: My selection: Mr. Coach ML 12-1.

The Result: Premier Take scores from the outside at 7/2 as longshot Del Pilot gets the most points for running second. Magic Carpet Glide sprinted clear early and held third. Mr Coach faded early and ran last at 10-1!

Maximum Points: Del Pilot 230
Maximum Score: 230
My Score: 0

Race 2: My selection: Jean the Queen ML 3-1.

The Result: Maiden special weight dropper and layoff horse Put Me First scored at 9/2 with Unseen Glory second and first time starter Makelifework ran third. Put Me First was very playable as she had flashed early speed as a two-year old and was dropping in class. Ronnie Allen Jr was up for the score. My selection Jean the Queen with leading rider Centeno was sluggish early and ran evenly, finishing fifth.

Maximum Points: Put Me First 242
Maximum Score: 472
My Score: 0

Race 3: My selection: Conchacer ML 2-1.

The Result: Conchacer stalked wide and ran down a game Begriff to score by a neck. Curragh Mon finished third. Relatively few points available in this formful race.

Maximum Points: Conchacer 84
Maximum Score: 556
My Score: 84

Race 4: My selection: Cryptogram ML 5-1.

The Result: Favored Otis Ridge narrowly defeated my top choce in a long drive with Onotheregoestokyo running third. An objection was lodged against the third place finisher foe interference down the stretch but it was not allowed. Kirk Ziadie remains on fire! My selection ran very well at 8-1 but couldn’t get the money.

Maximum Points: Cryptogram 122
Maximum Score: 678
My Score: 206

Race 5: My Selection: Mr. Flatter ML 5-1

The Result: Mr. Flatter dueled and scored by a nose on the wire over hard charging Stormin Yank. Long layoff horse Hi Time Scott ran third. Favored Tytus never got untracked from the rail. Mr Flatter was a generous 5-1 after facing much tougher at Gulfstream Park in his last start. The early speed held this time.

Maximum Points: Mr. Flatter 238
Maximum Score: 916
My Score: 444

Race 6: My selection: No Use Denying ML 5/2.

The Result: Even money No Use Denying looked like the stone cold winner turning for home but he was run down late by Gdansking Queen at 4-1. Clement continues his red hot ways at Tampa! The Lady Waffles was up for third. No excuse for No Use Denying in this one.

Maximum Points: Gdansking Queen 176
Maximum Score: 1,092
My Score: 504

Race 7: My selection: Boots Are Walking ML 4-1.

The Result: Custer rallied and scored at 5/2, defeating Chief Talkeetna and Mannington. My selection was on the lead turning for home at 5-1, but offered nothing down the stretch. Mannington had some trouble as the favorite down on the inside.

Maximum Points: Custer 148
Maximum Score: 1,240
My score: 504

Race 8: My selection: Sweet Repent ML 7/2.

The Result: Rock Candy ran a huge one at 4-1, defeating Ameribelle and the favorite Don’t Forget Gil. My selection Sweet Repent never made the lead like I hoped and ran very poorly. Don’t Forget Gil had some trouble and closed strongly for third. He may have been best.

Maximum Points: Rock Candy 186
Maximum Score: 1,426
My Score: 504

Race 9: My selection: Stormy West ML 7/2.

The Result: Stormy West had some trouble and the favorite Ginger Brew failed to fire. Instead it was Ballymore Lady at 6-1 getting up late over a very game Elusive Lady who led to deep stretch. Sousaphone ran third at 45-1.

Maximum Points: Ballymore Lady 256
Maximum Score: 1,682
My Score: 504

Race 10: My selection: Cliffy’s Future ML 10-1.

The Result: The big favorite Free Country disappointed and finished fourth, as 13-1 longshot General Quarters stalked in second early and scored easily. Longshot Sumo at 30-1 finished second and Musket Man ran third. Cliffy’s Future….hello? It’s not on the Derby trail after that performance. I think he just finished. General Quarters had finished second in his last two starts behind race rivals Musket Man and Top Seed. He has blossomed into a nice one for trainer Mark Miller. General Quarters debuted at Churchill Downs in a $20K maiden claiming race at 4.5 furlongs and was claimed . He won that race at odds of 4/5.

Maximum Points: General Quarters 960
Maximum Score: 2,642
My Score: 504

Race 11: My selection: Victorianna ML 10-1.

The Result: Victorianna had the perfect stalking trip but her best was third best today as Bucky’s Prayer stalked and scored at 4-1 from the rail post. Favored Silver Envoy finished second.

Maximum Points: Bucky’s Prayer 180
Maximum Score: 2,822
My Score: 548

Race 12: My selection: Bankers High Yield ML 6-1.

The Result: Second choice Teuton rallied to win it over Bullet From Abroad and Heaven’s Reward. Bullet From Abroad was worth the most contest points with his second place finish. Bankers High Yield? Ran like the banking industry has been running lately. Diseased….

Maximum Points: Bullet From Abroad 214
Maximum Score: 3,036
My Score: 548

Golden Gate Race 8: My selection: Rendezvous ML 6-1.

The Result: Heavily favored Chocolate Candy scored at 1-2 odds for the Hollendorfer/Baze connection. Massone grabbed second and Rendezvous finished third. Rendezvous loomed at the top of the stretch but flattened out at 11-1 odds. This was the “other” Hollendorfer horse. Playing the larger price of an “uncoupled entry is an angle I like to play that has a 2% success rate when I play it and a 50% success rate when I don’t.

Maximum Points: Chocolate Candy 146
Maximum Score: 3,182
My Score: 612

Summary: The play of the day was to tab General Quarters in the featured Sam Davis to win at 13-1 odds. That pick was worth nearly 1/3 of the available points today. Other than that, it was a pretty formful day. As a rule of thumb, if you can get about 2/3 of the maximum points on any given day, you should be right near the top. I would expect the winning score to be somewhere around 2,000 points this week. Congratulations to everyone who found General Quarters today! See you next week.

The Oracle

Friday, February 13, 2009

Odds and Ends

Huge scores in last week's Road to Kentucky contest. Congrats to top scorer Eric Hjelmeland who amassed 2,216 points...... This weekend's venue is Tampa Bay Downs.

The Blood-Horse recently ran a feature on MN owner Cam Casby. You can find it online at Bloodhorse.com. Cam has had her share of success in this business and continutes to support racing at Canterbury Park................and it is PARK (see the Blood-Horse story).... I have always maintained that it doesn't matter what they say about you as long as they get your name right. We haven't been Canterbury Downs for more than a decade. They don't call Turfway Park Latonia anymore, or Philly Park Keystone Racetrack. So please drop the Downs already.

Hamazing Destiny, owned by Eden Prairie's Barry Butzow, debuted at Oaklawn on Saturday. This 3-year-old colt ran up the score, winning by 10 1/2 effortless lengths. The word was out as the price was low. See Rampellini's DRF story here.

jm

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Road to Kentucky - Week 1


Hello everyone, welcome to the Road to Kentucky weekly blog recap – year 2. Every year, Canterbury Park offers a three-month long contest culminating with the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May.

The winner of the Road to Kentucky contest receives a trip to the Horse Player World Series next year at The Orleans Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. The contest starts at the Fair Grounds and there are three Bonus Races in today’s contest: the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, and the Whirlaway at Aqueduct.



Good luck to all.

Race 1: The first race is an Alw44000N1X for fillies and mares at 1m40 yards. I selected Violetinha who breaks from the rail and is ML 9/2 odds. This filly is moving from turf to dirt and stretching out in distance. She didn’t handle the turf well in her last effort, but shows a strong series of three workouts since her last start. She was battling for the lead in her two previous dirt sprints and may settle nicely over a route of ground. I’m expecting her to go for the lead from the inside post. I tabbed Acacia and Victory Romance as the main contenders.

The Result: Favored Acacia took advantage of a pace battle between my selection and Victory Romance, and scored easily at 4/5 odds. Syrianna’s Song rallied for second and Victory Romance held third. My selection never got the clear lead I was hoping for and faded down the lane at 3-1 odds.

Maximum Points: Acacia 85
Maximum Score: 85
My Score: 0

Race 2: This was a MSW44K for La bred 3yo’s at 6f. I selected Swing N Jones (9/2 ML), a first time starter trained by William Calhoun. Swing N Jones is by the very strong debut sire Seneca Jones, who gets 19% debut winners. Calhoun and jockey Castanon have combined for 6 wins from 10 starts at the Fair Grounds meet thus far. The likely favorite will be Seven Mile Bridge, but he has lost as the favorite four consecutive times. Even if he wins, there’s no value in going that particular direction. My contender group also included Down the Road, South Line, and Pack of Lies.

The Result: Down the Road sprinted clear early and cruised to an easy victory at 5-1 odds. Augustus Macray rallied for second and Coach Carroll finished third. My selection rallied to contention on the turn but faded down the lane. Favored Seven Mile Bridge faltered in a poor effort.

Maximum Points: Down the Road 244
Maximum Score: 329
My Score: 0

Race 3: This was an OC30K/N4L for La breds 4+ at 6f. It looked extremely wide open on paper and I selected the entry of Taylortown and Time Is Crucial (6-1 ML) to hopefully stalk a fast early pace put in a strong bid down the stretch. I preferred Time Is Crucial of the two runners, as he showed a very sharp workout since his last race and was switching back to jockey E Perrodin. Perrodin scored on this horse 3 starts back at 10-1 odds. My contender group also included Sprightly Star, Double Helix, Belend, Cush, and Baruff (just about everybody else!).

The Result: Cush scored an easy victory as the favorite. Belend was second and Time is Crucial was up for third. The strong pace battle that I envisioned never materialized.

Maximum Points: B B Frank 100
Maximum Score: 429
My Score: 22

Race 4: This was the 43rd running of the Pan Zareta for fillies and mares 4+ at 6f. Two scratches left a field of only four runners. I selected Precious Kiss from the outside post as she showed a series of sharp workouts since her last start. Jacinto rides.

The Result: Precious Kiss rallied for the win with Classify second and P.S.U. Grad running third. With the 4 horse field, there was only win-place wagering available.

Maximum Points: Precious Kiss 96
Maximum Score: 525
My Score: 118

Race 5: This was the 22nd running of the Colonel Power at 5.5f on the turf. This looked like a 2-horse race on paper between Storm Treasure and Chamberlain Bridge. I selected Chamberlain Bridge with the better early speed, hoping to turn the tables on Storm Treasure who defeated him in their last meeting.

The Result: Chamberlain Road powered home to a wire to wire victory as the 3/2 favorite. Grand Traverse finished second and there was a dead heat for third between Storm Treasure and Rouse the Cat.

Maximum Points: Chamberlain Road 107
Maximum Score: 632
My Score: 225

Race 6: This is the 24th running of the Mineshaft Handicap for 4+ at 1m1/16th. My selection was My Pal Charlie, who was a hero in last years Road to Kentucky contest when he finished 2nd at 60-1 in the Louisiana Derby right here at Fair Grounds. My Pal Charlie has 2 of his 3 career wins at Fair Grounds and jockey Bourque rode him to victory in the Super Derby last year; lots to like in this difficult spot. Others in my contender group are Grasshopper and Honest Man.

The Result: My Pal Charlie got the lead in a pretty easy pace, but must have needed the race as Honest Man blew by him down the stretch to win going away. Good and Lucky rallied for second and Brothers Nicholas finished third. My Pal Charlie tired to fourth as the 5/2 second choice.

Maximum Points: Honest Man 134
Maximum Score: 766
My Score: 225

Aqueduct Race 8: This was The Whirlaway for 3yo’s at 1m1/16th, a double point bonus race. The heavy favorite will be Haynesfield who is exiting three consecutive victories. I decided to go a different direction and selected the probable pace setter Mike From Queens (ML 5-1). My selection finished 3rd behind Haynesfield in his last start, but he was pressured on a fast pace and he continues to improve race by race. He has some upside potential as an alternative to the favorite, although Haynesfield will probably win the race.

The Result: Haynesfield toyed with this group as he even grabbed the early lead from the inside post and drew away at odds of 2/5. Cellar Dweller rallied for second at odds of 16-1 and Mike From Queens was third at 5-1 odds. Cellar Dweller got the most contest points for his second place finish.

Maximum Points: Cellar Dweller 224
Maximum Score: 990
My Score: 285

Race 7: This was The Fair Grounds Handicap Grade III for 4 yo’s at 1m1/8 on the turf. Many ways to go here, I decided to try Demarcation (ML 9/2) as he exited a win at the distance at Churchill Downs in his last start at 33-1 odds. Castanon remains aboard after a 2.5 month layoff. The Racing Form comment noted that Demarcation had won twice off layoffs in 2007 although that doesn’t show up in the horses past performances. This is a very tough race; I tried to avoid the favorite with my selection. I’m guessing Demarcation goes to post above his Morning Line odds. My contender group also included Jimmy Simms, French Beret, Corrupt, Windward Islands, and Diamond Tycoon.

The Result: Diamond Tycoon rallied into a slow pace and scored at 7/2 odds. Favored Windward Islands ran second and Corrupt finished third. My selection made a brief bid on the far turn but flattened out at 4-1 odds.

Maximum Points: Diamond Tycoon 172
Maximum Score: 1,162
My score: 285

Race 8: This was the 28th running of The Silverbulletday Grade III for 3yo fillies at 1m1/16th. I selected Four Gifts from the rail, getting the rider switch to Albarado after losing as the favorite in her last start to race rival Just Jenda. My selection defeated Just Jenda two starts back at Delta Downs, so these two fillies are evenly matched. Neither will be much of a price but Just Jenda is the ML favorite. War Echo trained by Steve Asmussen also merited some consideration in my view.

The Result: Four Gifts made a winning move into the stretch but was run down late by the “other” Asmussen horse War Echo. Those two finished far ahead of the others. Just Jenda was a distant third at even money. Bridgmohan had left Four Gifts to ride War Echo, perhaps that was the angle in play that pointed towards this filly. She ran a big one.

Maximum Points: War Echo 200
Maximum Score: 1,362
My Score: 351


Race 9: This is the feature, the 36th running of The Risen Star Grade III for 3yo at 1m1/16. I’m taking a chance with Larry Jones’ “other horse”, It Happened Again (ML 10-1). This colt tries a route of ground for the first time in his career after exiting a victory going short at Delta Downs. Trainer Jones commented that he thought his two colts were very similar in ability, and since his other colt is the probable favorite Friesan Fire I thought I would go for the much better odds in this spot. This race is so tough that it’s really the better strategy to try a longshot in my view. Unless the favorite wins…My contender group also included Nowhere to Hide, Uno Mas, and Flying Pegasus in addition to the two Jones’ colts. I didn’t care for highly regarded Indygo Mountain after reading that trainer Calhoun didn’t think he had his horse fully cranked for this one after missing some earlier training. We shall see…

The Result: Jones now knows which of his colts is better, and unfortunately it wasn’t my selection. Friesan Fire ran very well, staying near a quick pace and continuing on down the lane to defeat longshots Flying Pegasus and Uno Mas. Indygo Mountain rallied wide and flattened out, and Giant Oak had no visible excuse while passing tired horses. Friesan Fire has

stamped himself as a legitimate Derby contender with this win. Some of these will drop away and others will move forward to the next opportunity.




Maximum Points: Friesan Fire 312
Maximum Score: 1,674
My Score: 351


Race 10: This was an ALW46000N1X for La bred fillies and mares 4+ at 6f. I didn’t have any original insight here and selected the probable favored entry (ML 2-1) as it looked like both halves of the entry were strong win candidates. These two ran 1-2 in their last outing against claimers and I envisioned a similar result today.

The Result: This was the one you needed to win the contest today. Jockey Graham, who has ridden quite a few big priced winners at Fair Grounds this meet, put Miracleinthemaking in the winners’ circle at gigantic odds of 40-1. The horse was very tough to find, although he had finished second three starts back at this level at 20-1 and had won twice last year at Evangeline Downs. In his last start, he had a bad start and never factored. Today he showed tremendous early speed and just kept running. Congratulations to those who found this winner! My selection went off at even money and had every chance down the lane while finishing third. Not very good!

Maximum Points: Miracleinthemaking 1,018
Maximum Score: 2,692
My Score: 373

Race 11: This was a MSW42K for 3yos at 6f. Another race where I couldn’t see past favored Hillswick (ML 5/2). He ran a very strong third in his career debut in a swiftly run key race. He looks too tough against these and appears to be a short priced winner.

The Result: Not so fast…a pair of first time starters finished 1-2 as my selection had a lot of trouble early and finished a distant third at even money. Congratulations if you found the winner Hull or the second place finisher Trip in Time as they both scored 166 points.

Maximum Points: Hull 166
Maximum Score: 2,858
My Score: 395

Santa Anita Race 8: This was the 71st running of the Robert B. Lewis Grade II for 3yos at 1m1/16th. Another very difficult bonus race, I selected Shafted, a seemingly very talented Mineshaft colt who exits a maiden win after having some trouble at the start and closing into a slow pace. This is really just a guess so I’m hoping for something close to 10-1 odds at post time. I know the probable favorite Pioneer of the Nile already has enough earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, so he is probably not in this race to win it. Baffert did make a comment about getting his horse some experience. No clue in puzzler…

The Result: It appeared that longshot Papa Clem had pulled the shocker at 17-1, but favored Pioneer of the Nile got up in the final strides to stamp himself a top Derby contender on the West coast. Baffert mentioned after the race that he would not send Pioneer of the Nile out of California until the Kentucky Derby. Papa Clem was the top point getter in the race and ran extremely well in defeat. My selection was bet down to 6-1, but never factored in a poor effort.

Maximum Points: Papa Clem 416
Maximum Score: 3,274
My Score: 395


Summary: The play of the day was to find “name play” Miracleinthemaking in the tenth at Fair Grounds. That winner combined with a few points here and there should put you squarely in the top 6 for the week. There aren’t any other races that point half of what that horse was worth. Other than that, it was a pretty formful day for winners. Papa Clem was a good contest horse as well. As a rule of thumb, if you can get about 2/3 of the maximum points on any given day, you should be right near the top. I would expect the winning score to be somewhere around 2,000 points this week. You will find the scores posted on the R2K web page each Thursday.

I can’t blog the contest next week but I will be back in two weeks with hopefully more winners than I had today. Good Luck!


The Oracle

Thursday, February 5, 2009

NTRA THOROUGHBRED NOTEBOOK

News and notes from around the Thoroughbred racing world, compiled by NTRA Communications.

HORSE RACING AND REALITY TV INTERSECT ON ANIMAL PLANET FRIDAY NIGHT

Animal Planet will debut its new, 12-episode series “Jockeys” this Friday night at 9:00 p.m. ET/PT (check local listings). Billed as a “docusoap”, “Jockeys” focuses on the work and lives of seven riders on the highly competitive Southern California circuit: Jon Court, Aaron Gryder, Mike Smith, Alex Solis, Kayla Stra, Chantal Sutherland and Joe Talamo. Key themes in the early episodes include the romantic relationship between Smith and Sutherland and the friendly rivalry between veteran Gryder and the successful young Talamo.



One of the show’s executive producers is Liz Bronstien, who is no stranger to racing.

“When I was growing up, my stepfather bet on the horses for a living,” she said. “We used to spend Jewish holidays at the track. And when I came out here [to California] and started producing television, I really, really wanted to tell the story and wanted to make a television show about jockeys.”

One of Bronstein’s main goals will be to show viewers the incredible skill and commitment necessary to become a top jockey.

“Every minute of the jockeys' lives is devoted to racing in one way or another,” she said. What they eat, how much they exercise, the sacrifices they have to make in their relationship to have this real, real focus. They are just extraordinary people who so many people think of as just passengers on a horse.”

Gryder believes that existing racing fans will enjoy the show very much, and he thinks it could be helpful in attracting new fans as well.

“I think it's going to bring a lot of people that maybe disliked racing because they thought it might have been something different than what it is,” he said. “Or it will introduce a lot of people that knew nothing about horse racing and never followed it into going to see it. It's a great sport. It's exciting. It's fun. And they'll see what goes into it.”

Early reviews are encouraging.

“The Roloffs of ‘Little People, Big World’ have competition for the title of Most Entertaining Pint-Sized Reality TV Stars…there’s drama on and off the track,” wrote Sports Illustrated in its February 9 issue.

“‘Jockeys’ appears to be the rare hybrid show that could appeal to racing industry insiders as well as novice or non fans interested in the drama involved in a high-profile, big-money and dangerous sport,” wrote Ed DeRosa on Thoroughbredtimes.com.

From Animal Planet’s perspective, “Jockeys” should, indeed, provide compelling viewing to its diverse viewership. And, yes, the Thoroughbred plays a big role in the show as well.

"So little is known about what goes into becoming a jockey, but these athletes couldn't triumph without the strength, speed and spirit of their equine partners," says Marjorie Kaplan, president and general manager of Animal Planet. "I think audiences will be surprised by what unfolds throughout the series."



CHAMPION STARDOM BOUND TOPS BIG SATURDAY AT SANTA ANITA

Four graded stakes races on Saturday at Santa Anita include a pair that could lead to a highly compelling clash in the April 4 Santa Anita Derby as 2-year-old filly champion Stardom Bound and California’s most accomplished male Triple Crown prospect, Pioneerof the Nile, make their 3-year-old debuts at the Arcadia, Calif., racetrack.

Stardom Bound makes her first start since being purchased by IEAH Stables in the 27th running of the Grade I, $300,000 Las Virgenes Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at one mile.

Should the stunning gray filly takes care of business as expected on Saturday, the winner of that day’s 71st running of the Grade II, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles is likely to be among her projected Santa Anita Derby opposition, and Pioneerof the Nile is expected to be the Lewis favorite.

Making his first start for three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert in Hollywood Park’s $750,000 CashCall Futurity on Dec. 20, Pioneerof the Nile emerged with a thrilling nose triumph over I Want Revenge to dramatically elevate his standing among Kentucky Derby hopefuls.

“Physically, he’s still a little immature,” said the 56-year-old trainer. “He’s a late foal, but I can see a difference in him now. He’s really maturing in his mind. He’s ready.”

I Want Revenge is back as well for the Lewis and figures as Pioneerof the Nile’s chief foe in the field of nine.

Also on Saturday at Santa Anita is the historic Grade II, $250,000 Strub Stakes at 1 1/8 miles for 4-year-olds. And the Grade III, $100,000 Thunder Road Handicap at one mile on turf constitutes the fourth graded stakes race on the stellar ten-race program.



GIANT OAK, FRIESEN FIRE TOP BIG FIELD IN RISEN STAR AT FAIR GROUNDS
Giant Oak, runner-up in last fall’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs, and Friesan Fire, who captured the Lecomte Stakes on January 10 at Fair Grounds, lead a field of 13 3-year-olds in the $200,000, Grade III Risen Star Stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

The 1 1/16-mile Risen Star is the last of six Saturday stakes races worth a total of $750,000 in purses as part of the Louisiana Derby Preview Day program.

Giant Oak, trained by Chris Block, has been installed as the slight 3-1 morning line choice and will have 2006 Eclipse Award-winning jockey Edgar Prado flying in for the mount, while Friesan Fire, one of two horses in the race conditioned by Larry Jones, has been tabbed as the 7-2 second choice and has regular rider Gabriel Saez slated for the saddle.

Giant Oak, a son of Giant’s Causeway, was part of a three-horse photo in the Kentucky Jockey Club, just behind Beethoven and in front of Capt. Candyman Can, who made his sophomore debut last Friday by winning the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

In the Lecomte, Friesan Fire, a colt by A. P. Indy, took command in upper stretch and drew clear for a 1 1/2-length victory. Giant Oak drew post seven in the field, while Friesan Fire will break just from his inside in post six.

Flying Pegasus, conditioned by Ralph Nicks, is the third choice in the Risen Star morning line at 6-1 but has been away from competition since September, when he finished second by a length, but 2 3/4 lengths in front of Friesan Fire, in the Grade II Futurity at Belmont.

The complete Risen Star Stakes field, in post position order, is: Map of the World (jockey: Curt Bourque, morning line odds: 20-1); Indygo Mountain (Jamie Theriot, 10-1); Nowhere to Hide (Corey Lanerie, 15-1); It Happened Again (Terry Thompson, 10-1); Uno Mas (Brian Hernandez Jr., 8-1); Friesan Fire (Gabriel Saez, 7-2); Giant Oak (Edgar Prado, 3-1); Dumar (Shaun Bridgmohan, 20-1); Code of Honour (Randall Toups, 20-1); Soul Warrior (Pat Valenzuela, 15-1); Summer’s Empire (Jesse Campbell, 20-1); Flying Pegasus (Robby Albarado, 6-1); and Au Moon (Julien Leparoux, 8-1).

Fans of multi-leg wagers will have numerous options to choose from on Saturday’s card. The Pick 6, usually offered on the final six races of the day, has been moved to cover all six of Saturday’s stakes races beginning with Race four and ending with the Risen Star. Also, an all-stakes Pick 5 will begin on Race five, and an all-graded stakes Pick 4 starts on Race six.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Derby History / Road to Kentucky

The annual Road to Kentucky Handicapping Contest (R2K) begins on Saturday, February 7. This contest is a true test of your handicapping ability and best of all it is free to enter and offers prize money. Weekly winners get cash and points accumulate over the series with more money and prizes awarded to the most consistent. Derby season is upon us....

.... as is handicapping tournament season. In addition to the R2K contest, there is a $10 super satellite offered on the R2K contest track each Saturday. Win that and you play in a $100 satellite. Win that and it is on to the July 25 Claiming Crown Ultimate. The top three players go to Las Vegas in Jan. 2010 and play for a million dollars. This seems like a long and winding road but it can be done. Last year The Oracle won a $10 super, a $100 satellite, and finished third in the Claiming Crown Ultimate, for $8,000 in cash and a trip to the recently concluded National Handicapping Championship.

Speaking of The Oracle, he will be blogging here each week during the R2K contest. You are encouraged to participate as well. Your handicapping comments and contest feedback are always appreciated. The Oracle also found the video below online. Enjoy a stroll through Kentucky Derby history......