Let me start off by saying “I had Mine That Bird on top”. However, I’m speaking of the $62,500 maiden claimer he won last year. Certainly, no one that can read and understand the Daily Racing Form Past Performances could have given this colt a real shot in the Kentucky Derby. There just wasn’t anything to hang your hat on.
Consider these mind numbing facts:
· Trainer Chip Wooley had won only once in 2009 (and it wasn’t even with this gelding)
· Trainer Chip Wooley had won only one route races since 2007
· Mine That Bird had a Beyer high of 81
· Mine That Bird ran out of the money in the Sunland Derby, a race closer to a $20k claimer than a Grade 1 event
· Mine That Bird faced this type of competition once, in the BC Juv Turf and ran last
· Mine That Bird, following in the Charasmatic mold, was entered into a maiden claiming event in his 2nd start
· Mine That Bird virtually missed the break and was some 25 lengths back early, completely tanking what the connections wanted to do, which was to run near the pace
So, how does a seasoned handicapper get their mind around this most improbable victory? Many are quick to say “horse racing is random, anything can happen”. This might be true but what happened on Saturday wasn’t “anything” or even “random”. It was impossible.
One plausible argument could be made for the strict drug testing that Churchill Downs set up for the Derby. It could be that many of the other, more accomplished, runners were somehow hindered by this stringent testing and an honest runner like Mine That Bird was the beneficiary.
All in all, it was a pretty amazing story. I cannot believe Hollywood would’ve entertained a script like this if it weren’t real. A no name trainer tugs his gelding 1700 miles behind his pickup to take a shot in the Derby. Not only does his horse run well, but it wins in the biggest margin of victory in decades as one of the longest shots on the board.
One note: How could Mine That Bird have only been 50-1? It makes zero sense. He was 140-1 on Betfair and many other services had him at 200-1 the day before the Derby. How could the Churchill crowd have knocked him down to 50-1 considering most of the crowd would likely bet the horses that were touted. I would love to know the sizes of the win bets put on him. It could a bigger story than some may realize.
Thank you,
David Valento
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
Sunday, May 3, 2009
More Derby Thoughts...
The outcome of the 135th Kentucky Derby left many race fans shaking their heads. Lines were short at the mutuel windows following the race. Not much cashing going on.
I spoke with a few players that hit the Oaks / Woodford/ Derby Pick 3. The tactic was a single (Rachel Alexandra), single (Einstein), ALL. When asked if they had to take 17 horses in the Derby, would they still have cashed and the answer by all was NO.
I guess this is the ‘little horse that could.’ To me, 50-1 seems like an underlay. I am a small circuit player so I should be thrilled that a horse that couldn’t win at second tier Sunland won the biggest race in the world, completely destroying the field. I just cannot figure out how. Sure, the breeding suggested distance and slop ability. What about the other 18? They all either didn’t run a step, got nicked up, or totally regressed. There were at 13 horses that could have won and I would not have been surprised. This gelding was not in that group. I was simply wrong. So was Andy Beyer, and every other public handicapper that displayed his selections. I can only hope that Sunland Steve gave out the winner.........Puzzling, but congrats to those that were able to make money. And they just ran the 3rd at Philly Park so the game goes on.....
There is no question who the star of Derby weekend is, she won the Oaks by 20 lengths– Rachel Alexandra – and never broke out of a gallop. As David Miller, whose View From The Quarter Pole blog is a must-read, said, “This is why we come to the racetrack.” This filly is so special that words can’t describe her. She is the best 3-year-old in training.
Following the Derby it seems all the connections hem and haw about the Preakness and then they all show up anyway.
Here is the latest news from Daily Racing Form:
Mine That Bird – maybe
Pioneerof the Nile – maybe
Join In The Dance - maybe
Papa Clem – maybe
West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain – unlikely
Hold Me Back, Advice, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Summer Bird – NO
Time to make the Sunland Derby a graded race?
Sunland officials have begged for graded status for the Sunland Derby. Those that make these decisions always say that no horse of importance runs in the race. Well, the Sunland officials now have their ammo. Meanwhile, the UAE Derby is a grade 2??? I guess Dubai has money and influence. The fact that each year those that exit that race are non-factors in the Derby makes no difference.
jm
I spoke with a few players that hit the Oaks / Woodford/ Derby Pick 3. The tactic was a single (Rachel Alexandra), single (Einstein), ALL. When asked if they had to take 17 horses in the Derby, would they still have cashed and the answer by all was NO.
I guess this is the ‘little horse that could.’ To me, 50-1 seems like an underlay. I am a small circuit player so I should be thrilled that a horse that couldn’t win at second tier Sunland won the biggest race in the world, completely destroying the field. I just cannot figure out how. Sure, the breeding suggested distance and slop ability. What about the other 18? They all either didn’t run a step, got nicked up, or totally regressed. There were at 13 horses that could have won and I would not have been surprised. This gelding was not in that group. I was simply wrong. So was Andy Beyer, and every other public handicapper that displayed his selections. I can only hope that Sunland Steve gave out the winner.........Puzzling, but congrats to those that were able to make money. And they just ran the 3rd at Philly Park so the game goes on.....
There is no question who the star of Derby weekend is, she won the Oaks by 20 lengths– Rachel Alexandra – and never broke out of a gallop. As David Miller, whose View From The Quarter Pole blog is a must-read, said, “This is why we come to the racetrack.” This filly is so special that words can’t describe her. She is the best 3-year-old in training.
Following the Derby it seems all the connections hem and haw about the Preakness and then they all show up anyway.
Here is the latest news from Daily Racing Form:
Mine That Bird – maybe
Pioneerof the Nile – maybe
Join In The Dance - maybe
Papa Clem – maybe
West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain – unlikely
Hold Me Back, Advice, Mr. Hot Stuff, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Summer Bird – NO
Time to make the Sunland Derby a graded race?
Sunland officials have begged for graded status for the Sunland Derby. Those that make these decisions always say that no horse of importance runs in the race. Well, the Sunland officials now have their ammo. Meanwhile, the UAE Derby is a grade 2??? I guess Dubai has money and influence. The fact that each year those that exit that race are non-factors in the Derby makes no difference.
jm
Kentucky Derby Post Mortem
by The Oracle
As enjoyable as it was for me to watch Rachel Alexandra deliver her stunning performance in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, the Kentucky Derby was equally dismal and disappointing for me. I like it when things make sense and I don’t like it when things don’t make sense. Give me order over chaos every time. And this year’s Derby offered up far too much chaos and far too little order for my senses and sensibilities to accept.
It was bad enough when race favorite I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race due to a slight injury. That weakened the field and lowered the odds on some of the other logical horses. But that was nothing compared to the running of the race itself. A horse who had avoided every national racing stage (except the Breeders Cup Juvenile where he finished last) toyed with the competition and drew off by more than six lengths, despite posting a career high Beyer speed figure entering the race of 81 in eight career starts.
Was it really as crazy as it seemed immediately following the race? Let’s take a closer look.
Favored Friesan Fire apparently injured himself coming out of the gate and was bleeding pretty badly from the hoof according to trainer Larry Jones. That could certainly explain his poor performance. That is a legitimate excuse.
Dunkirk stumbled pretty badly a few strides into the race and never threatened. He may have been compromised when he stumbled or simply been thrown off his game by the track or the huge field. His excuse is less than Friesan Fire’s but you can build a case that he did have trouble and his inexperience may have cost him.
Pioneerof the Nile appeared to have run his race. He showed good early speed, sat third down the backstretch, moved to the lead on the turn and survived a three-way photo for place which he won.
Papa Clem and Musket Man also ran to their form in rounding out the Superfecta. These horses had both won at least one of the prep races and contended in the other two. They weren’t top tier contenders but were eligible to run well.
Chocolate Candy closed a lot of ground to finish 5th, it was a representative effort in my opinion. The rest of the field ran slightly worse or better than what most people would have guessed based on their form coming into the race.
I’m feeling a little better already, because I’ve accounted for the efforts of 18 out of the 19 runners in the race. They either ran to form or had an excuse as to why they didn’t run to form.
That brings us to the Derby winner, Mine That Bird. In hindsight, 50-1 seems like a tremendous underlay. In fact, I believe he could have gone postward at 50-1 or higher in several races on the card based on his past performances. Who was betting this horse? I don’t see how it was possible that he won it. I can’t see it, I don’t see it, and I will never see it. And to be honest I don’t like it. But I do accept it, and if he wins the Preakness in two weeks against a different set of horses over a different racetrack and different track conditions, it will go a long ways towards legitimizing this victory.
And if he does win the Preakness and moves to New York with the possibility of winning the Triple Crown against a beaten and beleaguered group of three year old colts, I hope the owners of Rachel Alexandra will do the right thing and bring her to the Belmont and say “game on”.
As enjoyable as it was for me to watch Rachel Alexandra deliver her stunning performance in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, the Kentucky Derby was equally dismal and disappointing for me. I like it when things make sense and I don’t like it when things don’t make sense. Give me order over chaos every time. And this year’s Derby offered up far too much chaos and far too little order for my senses and sensibilities to accept.
It was bad enough when race favorite I Want Revenge scratched the morning of the race due to a slight injury. That weakened the field and lowered the odds on some of the other logical horses. But that was nothing compared to the running of the race itself. A horse who had avoided every national racing stage (except the Breeders Cup Juvenile where he finished last) toyed with the competition and drew off by more than six lengths, despite posting a career high Beyer speed figure entering the race of 81 in eight career starts.
Was it really as crazy as it seemed immediately following the race? Let’s take a closer look.
Favored Friesan Fire apparently injured himself coming out of the gate and was bleeding pretty badly from the hoof according to trainer Larry Jones. That could certainly explain his poor performance. That is a legitimate excuse.
Dunkirk stumbled pretty badly a few strides into the race and never threatened. He may have been compromised when he stumbled or simply been thrown off his game by the track or the huge field. His excuse is less than Friesan Fire’s but you can build a case that he did have trouble and his inexperience may have cost him.
Pioneerof the Nile appeared to have run his race. He showed good early speed, sat third down the backstretch, moved to the lead on the turn and survived a three-way photo for place which he won.
Papa Clem and Musket Man also ran to their form in rounding out the Superfecta. These horses had both won at least one of the prep races and contended in the other two. They weren’t top tier contenders but were eligible to run well.
Chocolate Candy closed a lot of ground to finish 5th, it was a representative effort in my opinion. The rest of the field ran slightly worse or better than what most people would have guessed based on their form coming into the race.
I’m feeling a little better already, because I’ve accounted for the efforts of 18 out of the 19 runners in the race. They either ran to form or had an excuse as to why they didn’t run to form.
That brings us to the Derby winner, Mine That Bird. In hindsight, 50-1 seems like a tremendous underlay. In fact, I believe he could have gone postward at 50-1 or higher in several races on the card based on his past performances. Who was betting this horse? I don’t see how it was possible that he won it. I can’t see it, I don’t see it, and I will never see it. And to be honest I don’t like it. But I do accept it, and if he wins the Preakness in two weeks against a different set of horses over a different racetrack and different track conditions, it will go a long ways towards legitimizing this victory.
And if he does win the Preakness and moves to New York with the possibility of winning the Triple Crown against a beaten and beleaguered group of three year old colts, I hope the owners of Rachel Alexandra will do the right thing and bring her to the Belmont and say “game on”.
Road to Kentucky Week 13
(Thanks to The Oracle for his weekly R2K commentary. It provides not only some insight into the races, but also the race by race point summary and winning total projection gives all entrants an idea of what it will takre to win......the editor)
Kentucky Derby day brings us a sloppy race track and a very big scratch of the morning line favorite I Want Revenge. Today we will determine the overall winner of the contest with a spot guaranteed in the Horse Player World Series next February. Good luck to all!
Race 1: This was an msw48K for 3+ at 6f. I selected favored Mother Ruth (ML 2-1) for Baffert and Gomez making his second career start after just missing on the synthetic at Santa Anita. No value here but a likely winner. Raposa looks like the main competition but she has 5 seconds from six career starts.
The Result: Raposa broke beautifully and wired the field in a snappy final time with strong fractions. Mother Ruth could do no better than second and Awesome Grannie finished third. Early speed dominates the opener!
Maximum Points: Raposa 202
Maximum Score: 202
My Score: 52
Race 2: This was an Alw52700N2X for 3+ at 7f. I selected Indian Silver (ML 12-1) who ran third on the Keeneland synthetic in his last outing and should be forwardly placed. Talamo takes over for Bridgmohan and this horse also has a victory on an off track and at the distance. Heavenly Chorus and Riley Tucker are the two favorites.
The Result: Another wire to wire winner as Riley Tucker scored easily at 8/5. Heavenly Chorus finished second and Major Pleasure was third. Speed speed speed early in the card!
Maximum Points: Riley Tucker 110
Maximum Score: 312
My Score: 52
Race 3: This was an Msw48K for 3+ at 1m1/16. I selected Polished (ML 10-1) trained by Carl Nafzger and ridden by Theriot. He ran a huge figure three starts back at Gulfstream but has regressed since. His style may not be conducive to the way the track is playing so far. Eagle Poise and Gold Brew are the logical alternatives.
The Result: The speed didn’t hold this time as Luv Gov rallied for D Wayne Lukas and scored at 5-1. He was a 0 for 9 maiden but loved the off track today. Gold Brew finished second and Big Flirt ran third at 21-1. Eagle Poise had a terrible start and never factored.
Maximum Points: Luv Gov 220
Maximum Score: 532
My Score: 52
Race 4: This was an Alw50200N1X for 3+ at 1m1/16. I selected Glenwood Canyon (ML 5/2) who has finished in the money 3 out of 4 times at Churchill Downs. He exits two key races at Fair Grounds. Brother Keith is the current favorite.
The Result: Glenwood Canyon got a good stalking trip and scored over Northern Prince and A.U. Miner. It took him 9 starts to break his maiden but he has now won two straight.
Maximum Points: Foxy Bailey 188
Maximum Score: 720
My Score: 240
Race 5: This was an OC 80K/N3X for 3+ at 1m on the turf. I selected longshot Leading On (ML 10-1) who drew in from the also eligible list. He raced at Tampa in his last two starts and steps up in class for this one. Why Tonto and Pick Six are the co-favorites on the board.
The Result: The wrong longshot won for me. Jazz in the Park at 16-1 scored for Borel and Bobby Barnett over Desert Wheat and Pick Six. The turf course was rated good. My selection was 16-1 and never moved from the back of the pack. Jazz in the Park won at long odds three starts back at Fair Grounds and loved the off turf today.
Maximum Points: Jazz in the Park 538
Maximum Score: 1,258
My Score: 240
Race 6: This was the 75th running of the G2 Churchill Downs for 4+ at 7f. I selected Ide Like a Double (ML 15-1) with Albarado who has run in some Louisiana bred stakes races and is second off the layoff. Kodiak Cowboy is the favorite on the board.
The Result: Accredit won the race at 4-1 over My Pal Charlie and The Roundhouse. The winner was a front-running horse with Leparoux aboard and a bullet work at Churchill since his last race. He made a lot of sense. My selection couldn’t get to contention at 11-1.
Maximum Points: Accredit 200
Maximum Score: 1,458
My Score: 240
Race 7: This was the 54th running of the Grade III Eight Belles for 3yo fillies at 7.5f. I selected Lady’s Laughter (ML 15-1) making her second start off the layoff shipping in from Keeneland. Just Jenda and Four Gifts are clearly the ones to beat on class but I’m launching for longshots this afternoon.
The Result: Four Gifts won it at a decent 7/2 price over favored Just Jenda and Warrior Maid. My selection got caught in a speed duel and faded out at a bet down price of 5-1.
Maximum Points: Four Gifts 168
Maximum Score: 1,626
My score: 240
Race 8: This was the 24th running of the Grade II Churchill Distaff Turf Mile for 3+ fillies on the turf. I selected Tizaqueena (ML 8-1) who is a decent price despite winning 4 of 5 career races. She makes her first start in a graded stakes race so class will be the question. She has a front running style.
The Result: Tizaqueena battled very well along the inside and scored at 8-1 over Dawn After Dawn and Lemon Chiffon. Speed on the turf was the ticket in this race as Tizaqueena appears to have a touch of class in notching her 6th career win from 7 starts.
Maximum Points: Tizaqueena 336
Maximum Score: 1,962
My Score: 576
Race 9: This was the 23rd running of the Grade I Humana Distaff for 4+ fillies and mares at 7f. I selected Royale Michelle (ML 10-1) who is undefeated over a wet track and at the distance. Bejarano takes the call. Game Face for the top connections of Pletcher/Gomez is the favorite from the outside.
The Result: Informed Decision rallied between runners down the stretch and got the money at 3-1. Longshot Temple Street rallied for 2nd at 32-1 and there was a dead heat for third between Dubai Majesty and Modification. Dubai Majesty looked like the winner in mid-stretch as she was on the lead but faltered in the final strides. My selection was in the mix at 6-1 but finished a close 5th. Temple Street got the most contest points for her second place finish.
Maximum Points: Temple Street 340
Maximum Score: 2,302
My Score: 576
Race 10: This was the 23rd running of the Grade I Turf Classic for 3+ at 1m 1/8 on the turf. I selected El Caballo (ML 12-1) who suffered a heart breaking nose defeat i9n his last race at 17-1. He has finished 1st or 2nd in 9 of 11 career races and continues to improve for trainer Nick Ralphs. Einstein is the current favorite on the board at 2-1.
The Result: Einstein proved once again that he is one of the top handicap horses in the country as he notches another Grade I win as the 9/5 favorite. He has now won Grade I Stakes races on the grass and synthetic and graded stakes races on the dirt. His career record is an impressive 11 wins from 25 starts. Cowboy Cal finished a close second and Court Vision ran third. My selection ran poorly, didn’t show his customary early speed and didn’t contend at 11-1.
Maximum Points: Einstein 120
Maximum Score: 2,422
My Score: 576
Kentucky Derby: This was the 135th running of the Grade I Kentucky Derby for 3yo at 1m ¼. This is the culmination of the contest and correctly selecting the winner of this race could be worth up to 3,000 contest points if you have the right longshot. Players near the lead don’t need a price they just need to be right! The scratch of I Want Revenge this morning puts favorite status on Friesan Fire. I selected Pioneerof the Nile (ML 4-1) who has won four Graded races in a row at Santa Anita on the synthetic track. He has never run over a dirt track but did get some positive reviews about his appearance at Churchill Downs this week. I liked his versatility in being able to handle different pace scenarios and you can’t underestimate having Gomez in the saddle. All in all I gave him the slight edge over Dunkirk and Friesan Fire but it will probably come down to who gets the best trip and handles the off track. Friesan Fire is already proven over an off track at Louisiana Downs. The last two off track Derbies were won by horses racing near the front end (Go For Gin 1994 and Smarty Jones 2004). I don’t think we will see a deep closer this year either but I’m betting that Pioneerof the Nile will be closer to the pace than some people think. Good luck in this year’s Kentucky Derby!!
The Result: Calvin Borel scraped paint with 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird and he drew off with ease to with this year’s Kentucky Derby! I honestly don’t see how you can make any kind of a case for the horse on paper but he won easily and the result cannot be denied. He qualified for the race by winning a Grade III 7f race on the synthetic surface at Woodbine last year and other than that finished last in the BC Juvenile. He followed that up with a second and fourth place finish at Sunland Park in non-Graded stakes races. Pioneerof the Nile finished second and Musket Man ran third. It will be interesting to read what the connections of Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and a few others have to say because they were never heard from. I can only suppose that the track condition had quite a bit to do with it. This can be a humbling game sometimes and I don’t believe I heard one national handicapper give this romping easy winner any chance whatsoever. Congratulations to everyone who wrote down “8” on your Road to Kentucky form; you just gained about 4 weeks worth of points in 2 minutes! Mine that Bird was a “Cap” horse so he was worth 3,600 points. I was completely wrong about the race not being won by a closer!
Maximum Points: Mine That Bird 3,600
Maximum Score: 6,022
My Score: 1,020
Race 12: This was an Alw50200N1X for 3yo fillies at 7f. I selected Knockout Bertie (ML 9/2) who won her only other start to date at 15-1 and shows three very solid workouts at Churchill Downs. This is the final race of the entire contest!
The Result: Favored Luster scored from the rail at 4/5 odds followed by Honchis’n Ponchis and Girls Image. The rail was good today indeed! Honchis’n Ponchis got the most contest points for his second place finish.
Maximum Points: Honchis’n Ponchis 104
Maximum Score: 6,126
My Score: 1,020
Summary: Numerologists may have had a shot at selecting Derby winner Mine That Bird but conventional handicappers didn’t. It’s likely that a few players had the horse so a winning score of 4,000 points this week is certainly within reach. If you tabbed Mine That Bird and you were within a few thousand points of the overall lead you just might have won yourself a trip to the Horseplayer World Series next year. Congratulations to anyone who found that triple point “Cap” horse! The sloppy track at Churchill today certainly provided us with some difficult and interesting results. That’s horse racing!
The Oracle
Kentucky Derby day brings us a sloppy race track and a very big scratch of the morning line favorite I Want Revenge. Today we will determine the overall winner of the contest with a spot guaranteed in the Horse Player World Series next February. Good luck to all!
Race 1: This was an msw48K for 3+ at 6f. I selected favored Mother Ruth (ML 2-1) for Baffert and Gomez making his second career start after just missing on the synthetic at Santa Anita. No value here but a likely winner. Raposa looks like the main competition but she has 5 seconds from six career starts.
The Result: Raposa broke beautifully and wired the field in a snappy final time with strong fractions. Mother Ruth could do no better than second and Awesome Grannie finished third. Early speed dominates the opener!
Maximum Points: Raposa 202
Maximum Score: 202
My Score: 52
Race 2: This was an Alw52700N2X for 3+ at 7f. I selected Indian Silver (ML 12-1) who ran third on the Keeneland synthetic in his last outing and should be forwardly placed. Talamo takes over for Bridgmohan and this horse also has a victory on an off track and at the distance. Heavenly Chorus and Riley Tucker are the two favorites.
The Result: Another wire to wire winner as Riley Tucker scored easily at 8/5. Heavenly Chorus finished second and Major Pleasure was third. Speed speed speed early in the card!
Maximum Points: Riley Tucker 110
Maximum Score: 312
My Score: 52
Race 3: This was an Msw48K for 3+ at 1m1/16. I selected Polished (ML 10-1) trained by Carl Nafzger and ridden by Theriot. He ran a huge figure three starts back at Gulfstream but has regressed since. His style may not be conducive to the way the track is playing so far. Eagle Poise and Gold Brew are the logical alternatives.
The Result: The speed didn’t hold this time as Luv Gov rallied for D Wayne Lukas and scored at 5-1. He was a 0 for 9 maiden but loved the off track today. Gold Brew finished second and Big Flirt ran third at 21-1. Eagle Poise had a terrible start and never factored.
Maximum Points: Luv Gov 220
Maximum Score: 532
My Score: 52
Race 4: This was an Alw50200N1X for 3+ at 1m1/16. I selected Glenwood Canyon (ML 5/2) who has finished in the money 3 out of 4 times at Churchill Downs. He exits two key races at Fair Grounds. Brother Keith is the current favorite.
The Result: Glenwood Canyon got a good stalking trip and scored over Northern Prince and A.U. Miner. It took him 9 starts to break his maiden but he has now won two straight.
Maximum Points: Foxy Bailey 188
Maximum Score: 720
My Score: 240
Race 5: This was an OC 80K/N3X for 3+ at 1m on the turf. I selected longshot Leading On (ML 10-1) who drew in from the also eligible list. He raced at Tampa in his last two starts and steps up in class for this one. Why Tonto and Pick Six are the co-favorites on the board.
The Result: The wrong longshot won for me. Jazz in the Park at 16-1 scored for Borel and Bobby Barnett over Desert Wheat and Pick Six. The turf course was rated good. My selection was 16-1 and never moved from the back of the pack. Jazz in the Park won at long odds three starts back at Fair Grounds and loved the off turf today.
Maximum Points: Jazz in the Park 538
Maximum Score: 1,258
My Score: 240
Race 6: This was the 75th running of the G2 Churchill Downs for 4+ at 7f. I selected Ide Like a Double (ML 15-1) with Albarado who has run in some Louisiana bred stakes races and is second off the layoff. Kodiak Cowboy is the favorite on the board.
The Result: Accredit won the race at 4-1 over My Pal Charlie and The Roundhouse. The winner was a front-running horse with Leparoux aboard and a bullet work at Churchill since his last race. He made a lot of sense. My selection couldn’t get to contention at 11-1.
Maximum Points: Accredit 200
Maximum Score: 1,458
My Score: 240
Race 7: This was the 54th running of the Grade III Eight Belles for 3yo fillies at 7.5f. I selected Lady’s Laughter (ML 15-1) making her second start off the layoff shipping in from Keeneland. Just Jenda and Four Gifts are clearly the ones to beat on class but I’m launching for longshots this afternoon.
The Result: Four Gifts won it at a decent 7/2 price over favored Just Jenda and Warrior Maid. My selection got caught in a speed duel and faded out at a bet down price of 5-1.
Maximum Points: Four Gifts 168
Maximum Score: 1,626
My score: 240
Race 8: This was the 24th running of the Grade II Churchill Distaff Turf Mile for 3+ fillies on the turf. I selected Tizaqueena (ML 8-1) who is a decent price despite winning 4 of 5 career races. She makes her first start in a graded stakes race so class will be the question. She has a front running style.
The Result: Tizaqueena battled very well along the inside and scored at 8-1 over Dawn After Dawn and Lemon Chiffon. Speed on the turf was the ticket in this race as Tizaqueena appears to have a touch of class in notching her 6th career win from 7 starts.
Maximum Points: Tizaqueena 336
Maximum Score: 1,962
My Score: 576
Race 9: This was the 23rd running of the Grade I Humana Distaff for 4+ fillies and mares at 7f. I selected Royale Michelle (ML 10-1) who is undefeated over a wet track and at the distance. Bejarano takes the call. Game Face for the top connections of Pletcher/Gomez is the favorite from the outside.
The Result: Informed Decision rallied between runners down the stretch and got the money at 3-1. Longshot Temple Street rallied for 2nd at 32-1 and there was a dead heat for third between Dubai Majesty and Modification. Dubai Majesty looked like the winner in mid-stretch as she was on the lead but faltered in the final strides. My selection was in the mix at 6-1 but finished a close 5th. Temple Street got the most contest points for her second place finish.
Maximum Points: Temple Street 340
Maximum Score: 2,302
My Score: 576
Race 10: This was the 23rd running of the Grade I Turf Classic for 3+ at 1m 1/8 on the turf. I selected El Caballo (ML 12-1) who suffered a heart breaking nose defeat i9n his last race at 17-1. He has finished 1st or 2nd in 9 of 11 career races and continues to improve for trainer Nick Ralphs. Einstein is the current favorite on the board at 2-1.
The Result: Einstein proved once again that he is one of the top handicap horses in the country as he notches another Grade I win as the 9/5 favorite. He has now won Grade I Stakes races on the grass and synthetic and graded stakes races on the dirt. His career record is an impressive 11 wins from 25 starts. Cowboy Cal finished a close second and Court Vision ran third. My selection ran poorly, didn’t show his customary early speed and didn’t contend at 11-1.
Maximum Points: Einstein 120
Maximum Score: 2,422
My Score: 576
Kentucky Derby: This was the 135th running of the Grade I Kentucky Derby for 3yo at 1m ¼. This is the culmination of the contest and correctly selecting the winner of this race could be worth up to 3,000 contest points if you have the right longshot. Players near the lead don’t need a price they just need to be right! The scratch of I Want Revenge this morning puts favorite status on Friesan Fire. I selected Pioneerof the Nile (ML 4-1) who has won four Graded races in a row at Santa Anita on the synthetic track. He has never run over a dirt track but did get some positive reviews about his appearance at Churchill Downs this week. I liked his versatility in being able to handle different pace scenarios and you can’t underestimate having Gomez in the saddle. All in all I gave him the slight edge over Dunkirk and Friesan Fire but it will probably come down to who gets the best trip and handles the off track. Friesan Fire is already proven over an off track at Louisiana Downs. The last two off track Derbies were won by horses racing near the front end (Go For Gin 1994 and Smarty Jones 2004). I don’t think we will see a deep closer this year either but I’m betting that Pioneerof the Nile will be closer to the pace than some people think. Good luck in this year’s Kentucky Derby!!
The Result: Calvin Borel scraped paint with 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird and he drew off with ease to with this year’s Kentucky Derby! I honestly don’t see how you can make any kind of a case for the horse on paper but he won easily and the result cannot be denied. He qualified for the race by winning a Grade III 7f race on the synthetic surface at Woodbine last year and other than that finished last in the BC Juvenile. He followed that up with a second and fourth place finish at Sunland Park in non-Graded stakes races. Pioneerof the Nile finished second and Musket Man ran third. It will be interesting to read what the connections of Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and a few others have to say because they were never heard from. I can only suppose that the track condition had quite a bit to do with it. This can be a humbling game sometimes and I don’t believe I heard one national handicapper give this romping easy winner any chance whatsoever. Congratulations to everyone who wrote down “8” on your Road to Kentucky form; you just gained about 4 weeks worth of points in 2 minutes! Mine that Bird was a “Cap” horse so he was worth 3,600 points. I was completely wrong about the race not being won by a closer!
Maximum Points: Mine That Bird 3,600
Maximum Score: 6,022
My Score: 1,020
Race 12: This was an Alw50200N1X for 3yo fillies at 7f. I selected Knockout Bertie (ML 9/2) who won her only other start to date at 15-1 and shows three very solid workouts at Churchill Downs. This is the final race of the entire contest!
The Result: Favored Luster scored from the rail at 4/5 odds followed by Honchis’n Ponchis and Girls Image. The rail was good today indeed! Honchis’n Ponchis got the most contest points for his second place finish.
Maximum Points: Honchis’n Ponchis 104
Maximum Score: 6,126
My Score: 1,020
Summary: Numerologists may have had a shot at selecting Derby winner Mine That Bird but conventional handicappers didn’t. It’s likely that a few players had the horse so a winning score of 4,000 points this week is certainly within reach. If you tabbed Mine That Bird and you were within a few thousand points of the overall lead you just might have won yourself a trip to the Horseplayer World Series next year. Congratulations to anyone who found that triple point “Cap” horse! The sloppy track at Churchill today certainly provided us with some difficult and interesting results. That’s horse racing!
The Oracle
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Derby Analysis
Former Canterbury Park Handicapper of the Year, Jerod Dinkin, provides his horse-by-horse analysis of the 135th Kentucky Derby.
#1 West Side Bernie-Elliott/Breen (30/1): Showed significant promise as a two year old winning the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile in his second career start. A disappointing three year old campaign was exemplified by his sixth place effort in the Lane’s End. A solid second place effort in the Wood was a step in the right direction and his works at Churchill have been very good. His best hope to hit the board is a faster than expected early pace and a clean trip, which is historically difficult from this post……….
#2 Musket Man-Coa/Ryan (20/1): 5 of 6 lifetime, there is a lot to admire about this hard knocking colt that always fires. He sports back to back Grade III wins in the Tampa Bay and Illinois Derbies and has enough tactical speed to stay fairly close to the pace. However, speed figure disciples will not care for his relatively light numbers and his pedigree (out of sprinter, Yonaguska) will do him no favors stretching out to 1 ¼ miles. He is not much a threat to win, but could hit the bottom of the exotics board with another solid effort…………
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff-Velazquez/Harty (30/1): Son of the gutsy Tiznow, Mr. Hot Stuff is exactly the type of horse I typically avoid in the Derby. One career win and a deep closing running style are two big knocks against. Every year, there are a handful of horses such as Mr. Hot Stuff that draw high praise for their closing kick. Manny pundits like these sorts that close at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 mile races thinking the extra furlong will do wonders. I’m of the opinion that these types need a perfect trip through most of the 20 horse field and ideal pace setup, which I don’t see happening here. Preferring those showing more early interest……….
#4 Advice-Douglas/Pletcher (30/1): This deep, deep closer can close like a freight train. However, his only start on a dirt track was positively terrible, and his speed figures put him a world behind the top tier three year olds. I would like him a lot more on a synthetic surface in a race with a number of speed horses drawn in. Not on my tickets……..
#5 Hold Me Back-Desormeaux/Mott (15/1): Hold Me Back is a slightly more accomplished version of Advice as he is also a deep closer with a poor lone start on a dirt track. His back to back races in the Lane’s End and Bluegrass were both solid closing efforts, but I’m skeptical about his chances on a dirt track coming from the back of the pack. Not on my tickets……….
#6 Freisan Fire-Saez/Jones (6/1): This son of A.P. Indy will enter the Derby off of a seven week layoff. This alone is reason for many to summarily dismiss this horse. Consider the context before making that judgment. Freisan Fire is trained by a horseman capable of pulling huge efforts off the shelf. He absolutely crushed the Louisiana Derby field (Papa Clem, subsequent winner of the Arkansas Derby was second, beaten more than seven lengths), and enters the Derby with plenty of bottom. His late pace figures are as strong as any other horse in the field despite his ability to rate just off the early pace. My top choice in a highly competitive field……….
#7 Papa Clem-Bejarano/Stute (20/1): This front running sort took down of the weakest renewals of the Arkansas Derby in memory by narrowly defeating a horse, Old Fashioned, that not only is best suited for 8 furlongs or less, but suffered a career ending injury in the stretch of that race. He is out of Smart Strike, sire of Curlin, and has a pretty strong past performance record with second place efforts in two Grade II’s along with his Arkansas Derby triumph. He will be forwardly placed in a race without a ton of speed, but the way he finished in Hot Springs leads me to believe a minor placing is his best hope………
#8 Mine That Bird-Borel/Wooley (50/1): Awfully generous morning line for this overmatched foe that would be double digits in a race against optional claiming foes at Churchill. I hope he doesn’t get in the way of horses with a legit shot at winning this….
#9 Join in the Dance Decarlo/Pletcher (50/1): Entered as a rabbit to set the table for Pletcher’s more accomplished star, Dunkirk, Join in the Dance only has one win to his credit-a 5 furlong win as a two year old at the Spa. He nearly sprung a huge upset at 35:1 in the Tampa Bay Derby as the field let him trot out front setting easy fractions. He will challenge Regal Ransom for the lead, but despite the lack of early speed in this field as a whole, this horse is too slow to make much noise…...
#10 Regal Ransom-Garcia/Suroor (30/1): This son of Distorted Humor (Sire of 2003 Derby victor Funny Cide) should go right to the front in what is shaping up as a relatively paceless affair on paper. He won at first asking at Saratoga before disappointing in the Grade I Norfolk at Santa Anita over a synthetic surface in his second two year old start. He lost twice to stablemate Desert Party before turning the tables in the U.A.E. Derby by leading every pole. Working extremely well at Churchill (he’s always been a fast worker in the A.M.) and is the quality early speed in what should be a favorable pace scenario for this runner. Threat……….
#11 Chocolate Candy-Smith/Hollendorfer (20/1): This son of Candy Ride is 4 for 9 lifetime having raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces. His last effort, a game second to Pioneerof The Nile, will appeal to those who have a favorable opinion of the California contingency. He is working well at Churchill and his connections are solid. Could add some appeal to the exotics for those believers……
#12 General Quarters-Leparoux/McCarthy (20/1): The feel good story of the Derby, this colt is easy to root for. In a field with large institutional owners and millionaires, this guy hails from a barn with one horse. As a three year old, he sports a Grade III win on dirt and a commanding performance in the Grade I Blue Grass at prestigious Keeneland. The Blue Grass is very rarely a key prep race these days, but you have to admire the guts and determination of this colt. He also owns what 14 other Derby starters do not—a triple digit beyer. I believe he rates a look underneath……
#13 I Want Revenge-Talamo/Mullins (3/1): The likely Derby favorite has some incredibly strong credentials: Solid two year old foundation, never off the board in eight career starts, battle tested (overcame trouble to win the Wood), and has run well on multiple surfaces/tracks. His freakish effort in the Gotham over the Aqueduct inner track was impressive, but he beat a weak field walking through slow early fractions. The inner dirt at Aqueduct is quirky and often produces horses that run high speed figures that don’t hold up in future races. He beat another soft field in the Wood after missing the break and having ample traffic issues in the stretch. That field was basically of “non-winners of two other than” allowance quality. He merits respect, but of the top contenders, he is one I will leave off the top of my tickets……….
#14 Atomic Rain-Bravo/Breen (50/1): 1 for 7 lifetime, this son of Smart Strike has been soundly beaten in each of his three forays in Graded Stakes races. He has a very big shot…..to finish ahead of Mine That Bird to sew up 19th place.
#15 Dunkirk-Prado/Pletcher (4/1): The well bred son of Unbridled Song is looking to win the Derby in his fourth career start. Slowed by foot issues as a two year old (sound familiar-Big Brown), he is making up for lost time in a hurry. He won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/8 miles from an outside post (Big Brown won the FLA Derby from an equally challenging post), which happens as often as a 70 degree day in Minneapolis in March. He looked like the winner in the FLA Derby after unleashing a very nice move around the far turn before Quality Road looked him in the eye and kicked on. He closed quite a bit a ground on a typical big day track at Gulfstream; fast and speed favoring. There is no doubt that this colt is immensely talented, perhaps possessing the most natural ability of any Derby runner. Contention runs deep……..
#16 Pioneerof The Nile-Gomez/Baffert (4/1): The Bob Baffert trained son of Empire Maker has done absolutely nothing wrong as a three year old capturing a Grade I and two Grade II’s over synthetic surfaces in Southern California. His preferred style is to sit off the pace, but showed an element of versatility in his Santa Anita Derby win by taking the lead early in the race over a vastly overmatched field. Detractors list his slow speed figures and lack of experience on natural dirt as two huge knocks against. Believers feel he’ll actually move up on a dirt surface and that speed figures on synthetics are less important (I agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly). Baffert always works his horses fast in the morning, so workouts might not help for those seeking clarity. He’s a solid horse that is a major competitor, but I’m taking a stand against……
#17 Summer Bird-Rosier/Ice (50/1): Yet another entrant in this field that deserves to be 100/1. The deep closer snuck into the field by finishing third in his third lifetime start in one of the weakest Arkansas Derby fields in recent memory. To make matters worse, the horse just broke his maiden on March 19th and is unraced as a two year old. Dunkirk could very well be freakishly talented, and it will still be a tall order for him to win this race without two year old foundation. Summer Bird is no Dunkirk…..
#18 Nowhere to Hide-Bridgmohan/Zito (50/1): He’s definitely the strongest candidate of the 50/1 morning line horses (to not finish) last by virtue of his three consecutive fourth place finishes in Graded Stakes affairs. He’s been soundly beaten by Musket Man and Freisan Fire and has lost to the likes of Take the Points and Nowhere to Hide. Not anywhere near my tickets………
#19 Desert Party-Dominguez/Suroor (15/1): This son of Street Cry (sire of 2007 Derby champ Street Sense) hails from the much ballyhooed Godolphin stable of international superstars. Historically, the Godolphin team has failed to make noise in the Derby by training and running their young horses in Dubai and shipping across the pond to Louisville. This year, both Godolphin charges have two year old experience in the states. Desert Party won the Grade II Sanford at Saratoga before embarking on a three race 2009 prep schedule. He crushed the Group III U.A.E. Guineas by daylight before his stablemate Regal Ransom got the better of him on a highly speed favoring Nad al Sheba surface in the U.A.E. Derby. He has a great cruising gear and can finish with a solid closing kick. I expect him to have a stalking trip in the Derby, in the second flight of horses behind the speed, and make his run turning for home. Legit threat with his best stuff……
#20 Flying Private-Albarado/Lukas (50/1): Legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas for some inexplicable reason puts this one in the gate. Perhaps he has a side bet with Zito to see which former multiple Derby winning trainer can enter the most hopelessly overmatched horse (My bets are on this runner)……..
#1 West Side Bernie-Elliott/Breen (30/1): Showed significant promise as a two year old winning the Grade III Kentucky Cup Juvenile in his second career start. A disappointing three year old campaign was exemplified by his sixth place effort in the Lane’s End. A solid second place effort in the Wood was a step in the right direction and his works at Churchill have been very good. His best hope to hit the board is a faster than expected early pace and a clean trip, which is historically difficult from this post……….
#2 Musket Man-Coa/Ryan (20/1): 5 of 6 lifetime, there is a lot to admire about this hard knocking colt that always fires. He sports back to back Grade III wins in the Tampa Bay and Illinois Derbies and has enough tactical speed to stay fairly close to the pace. However, speed figure disciples will not care for his relatively light numbers and his pedigree (out of sprinter, Yonaguska) will do him no favors stretching out to 1 ¼ miles. He is not much a threat to win, but could hit the bottom of the exotics board with another solid effort…………
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff-Velazquez/Harty (30/1): Son of the gutsy Tiznow, Mr. Hot Stuff is exactly the type of horse I typically avoid in the Derby. One career win and a deep closing running style are two big knocks against. Every year, there are a handful of horses such as Mr. Hot Stuff that draw high praise for their closing kick. Manny pundits like these sorts that close at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 mile races thinking the extra furlong will do wonders. I’m of the opinion that these types need a perfect trip through most of the 20 horse field and ideal pace setup, which I don’t see happening here. Preferring those showing more early interest……….
#4 Advice-Douglas/Pletcher (30/1): This deep, deep closer can close like a freight train. However, his only start on a dirt track was positively terrible, and his speed figures put him a world behind the top tier three year olds. I would like him a lot more on a synthetic surface in a race with a number of speed horses drawn in. Not on my tickets……..
#5 Hold Me Back-Desormeaux/Mott (15/1): Hold Me Back is a slightly more accomplished version of Advice as he is also a deep closer with a poor lone start on a dirt track. His back to back races in the Lane’s End and Bluegrass were both solid closing efforts, but I’m skeptical about his chances on a dirt track coming from the back of the pack. Not on my tickets……….
#6 Freisan Fire-Saez/Jones (6/1): This son of A.P. Indy will enter the Derby off of a seven week layoff. This alone is reason for many to summarily dismiss this horse. Consider the context before making that judgment. Freisan Fire is trained by a horseman capable of pulling huge efforts off the shelf. He absolutely crushed the Louisiana Derby field (Papa Clem, subsequent winner of the Arkansas Derby was second, beaten more than seven lengths), and enters the Derby with plenty of bottom. His late pace figures are as strong as any other horse in the field despite his ability to rate just off the early pace. My top choice in a highly competitive field……….
#7 Papa Clem-Bejarano/Stute (20/1): This front running sort took down of the weakest renewals of the Arkansas Derby in memory by narrowly defeating a horse, Old Fashioned, that not only is best suited for 8 furlongs or less, but suffered a career ending injury in the stretch of that race. He is out of Smart Strike, sire of Curlin, and has a pretty strong past performance record with second place efforts in two Grade II’s along with his Arkansas Derby triumph. He will be forwardly placed in a race without a ton of speed, but the way he finished in Hot Springs leads me to believe a minor placing is his best hope………
#8 Mine That Bird-Borel/Wooley (50/1): Awfully generous morning line for this overmatched foe that would be double digits in a race against optional claiming foes at Churchill. I hope he doesn’t get in the way of horses with a legit shot at winning this….
#9 Join in the Dance Decarlo/Pletcher (50/1): Entered as a rabbit to set the table for Pletcher’s more accomplished star, Dunkirk, Join in the Dance only has one win to his credit-a 5 furlong win as a two year old at the Spa. He nearly sprung a huge upset at 35:1 in the Tampa Bay Derby as the field let him trot out front setting easy fractions. He will challenge Regal Ransom for the lead, but despite the lack of early speed in this field as a whole, this horse is too slow to make much noise…...
#10 Regal Ransom-Garcia/Suroor (30/1): This son of Distorted Humor (Sire of 2003 Derby victor Funny Cide) should go right to the front in what is shaping up as a relatively paceless affair on paper. He won at first asking at Saratoga before disappointing in the Grade I Norfolk at Santa Anita over a synthetic surface in his second two year old start. He lost twice to stablemate Desert Party before turning the tables in the U.A.E. Derby by leading every pole. Working extremely well at Churchill (he’s always been a fast worker in the A.M.) and is the quality early speed in what should be a favorable pace scenario for this runner. Threat……….
#11 Chocolate Candy-Smith/Hollendorfer (20/1): This son of Candy Ride is 4 for 9 lifetime having raced exclusively on synthetic surfaces. His last effort, a game second to Pioneerof The Nile, will appeal to those who have a favorable opinion of the California contingency. He is working well at Churchill and his connections are solid. Could add some appeal to the exotics for those believers……
#12 General Quarters-Leparoux/McCarthy (20/1): The feel good story of the Derby, this colt is easy to root for. In a field with large institutional owners and millionaires, this guy hails from a barn with one horse. As a three year old, he sports a Grade III win on dirt and a commanding performance in the Grade I Blue Grass at prestigious Keeneland. The Blue Grass is very rarely a key prep race these days, but you have to admire the guts and determination of this colt. He also owns what 14 other Derby starters do not—a triple digit beyer. I believe he rates a look underneath……
#13 I Want Revenge-Talamo/Mullins (3/1): The likely Derby favorite has some incredibly strong credentials: Solid two year old foundation, never off the board in eight career starts, battle tested (overcame trouble to win the Wood), and has run well on multiple surfaces/tracks. His freakish effort in the Gotham over the Aqueduct inner track was impressive, but he beat a weak field walking through slow early fractions. The inner dirt at Aqueduct is quirky and often produces horses that run high speed figures that don’t hold up in future races. He beat another soft field in the Wood after missing the break and having ample traffic issues in the stretch. That field was basically of “non-winners of two other than” allowance quality. He merits respect, but of the top contenders, he is one I will leave off the top of my tickets……….
#14 Atomic Rain-Bravo/Breen (50/1): 1 for 7 lifetime, this son of Smart Strike has been soundly beaten in each of his three forays in Graded Stakes races. He has a very big shot…..to finish ahead of Mine That Bird to sew up 19th place.
#15 Dunkirk-Prado/Pletcher (4/1): The well bred son of Unbridled Song is looking to win the Derby in his fourth career start. Slowed by foot issues as a two year old (sound familiar-Big Brown), he is making up for lost time in a hurry. He won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/8 miles from an outside post (Big Brown won the FLA Derby from an equally challenging post), which happens as often as a 70 degree day in Minneapolis in March. He looked like the winner in the FLA Derby after unleashing a very nice move around the far turn before Quality Road looked him in the eye and kicked on. He closed quite a bit a ground on a typical big day track at Gulfstream; fast and speed favoring. There is no doubt that this colt is immensely talented, perhaps possessing the most natural ability of any Derby runner. Contention runs deep……..
#16 Pioneerof The Nile-Gomez/Baffert (4/1): The Bob Baffert trained son of Empire Maker has done absolutely nothing wrong as a three year old capturing a Grade I and two Grade II’s over synthetic surfaces in Southern California. His preferred style is to sit off the pace, but showed an element of versatility in his Santa Anita Derby win by taking the lead early in the race over a vastly overmatched field. Detractors list his slow speed figures and lack of experience on natural dirt as two huge knocks against. Believers feel he’ll actually move up on a dirt surface and that speed figures on synthetics are less important (I agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly). Baffert always works his horses fast in the morning, so workouts might not help for those seeking clarity. He’s a solid horse that is a major competitor, but I’m taking a stand against……
#17 Summer Bird-Rosier/Ice (50/1): Yet another entrant in this field that deserves to be 100/1. The deep closer snuck into the field by finishing third in his third lifetime start in one of the weakest Arkansas Derby fields in recent memory. To make matters worse, the horse just broke his maiden on March 19th and is unraced as a two year old. Dunkirk could very well be freakishly talented, and it will still be a tall order for him to win this race without two year old foundation. Summer Bird is no Dunkirk…..
#18 Nowhere to Hide-Bridgmohan/Zito (50/1): He’s definitely the strongest candidate of the 50/1 morning line horses (to not finish) last by virtue of his three consecutive fourth place finishes in Graded Stakes affairs. He’s been soundly beaten by Musket Man and Freisan Fire and has lost to the likes of Take the Points and Nowhere to Hide. Not anywhere near my tickets………
#19 Desert Party-Dominguez/Suroor (15/1): This son of Street Cry (sire of 2007 Derby champ Street Sense) hails from the much ballyhooed Godolphin stable of international superstars. Historically, the Godolphin team has failed to make noise in the Derby by training and running their young horses in Dubai and shipping across the pond to Louisville. This year, both Godolphin charges have two year old experience in the states. Desert Party won the Grade II Sanford at Saratoga before embarking on a three race 2009 prep schedule. He crushed the Group III U.A.E. Guineas by daylight before his stablemate Regal Ransom got the better of him on a highly speed favoring Nad al Sheba surface in the U.A.E. Derby. He has a great cruising gear and can finish with a solid closing kick. I expect him to have a stalking trip in the Derby, in the second flight of horses behind the speed, and make his run turning for home. Legit threat with his best stuff……
#20 Flying Private-Albarado/Lukas (50/1): Legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas for some inexplicable reason puts this one in the gate. Perhaps he has a side bet with Zito to see which former multiple Derby winning trainer can enter the most hopelessly overmatched horse (My bets are on this runner)……..
Mac Did The Right Thing
Mac Robertson's decesion to do what is best for his horse, Win Willy, should be applauded nationally.
Read Rachel Blount's coverage of the story in Startribune.com
Pride of Canterbury a no-go for Derby
Win Willy's Trainer Uses Horse Sense
Read Rachel Blount's coverage of the story in Startribune.com
Pride of Canterbury a no-go for Derby
Win Willy's Trainer Uses Horse Sense
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Win Willy Out of Kentucky Derby
Results of an x-ray of Win Willy's left front leg showing a "small line" have caused his trainer Mac Robertson to declare him from the Kentucky Derby. Read Rachel Blount's account here....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
